Fire, drought and flood: brief reflections on some climate change implications in Australia

Abstract

This short paper is based on a presentation to the Italian Academy of Forest Science delivered on November 21, 2007. The paper initially contrasts the forest fire regimes of Australia’s tropical savannas and southern temperate forests as a way of characterising the Australian fire environment. The McArthur Fire Danger Indices are then used as a conceptual framework for understanding the impact of climate change on fire danger. It is evident that fire danger will increase across Australia under climate change, but the magnitude of the change is different from place-to-place.
Finally the potential for feedbacks between fire scars and the atmosphere is discussed, along with likely impacts on atmospheric circulations and precipitation at a range of scales. Concern about climate change and the negative impacts of severe forest fire events is bringing about a reassessment of government policy on prescribed (fuel reduction) burning.